MELD Score and Child-Pugh: Liver Disease Severity Guide

MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) uses bilirubin, INR, and creatinine to predict 3-month mortality in cirrhosis and drives organ allocation in the US. MELD-Na adds serum sodium and is now the US standard for transplant listing. Child-Pugh uses five parameters (some subjective) to classify severity as A/B/C. Both tools are essential; neither tells the full story alone.

TL;DR: MELD uses bilirubin, INR, and creatinine to predict 3-month mortality in cirrhosis and drives organ allocation in the US. MELD-Na adds serum sodium and is now the US standard for transplant listing. Child-Pugh uses five parameters (some subjective) to classify severity as A/B/C. Both tools are essential; neither tells the full story alone. MELD predicts mortality; Child-Pugh predicts surgical risk and guides prognosis in daily practice.


Why Liver Severity Scoring Matters

Liver cirrhosis is a common endpoint for chronic liver disease from any cause. Once decompensated, the annual mortality is 20–57% depending on severity. Two questions drive clinical decisions: How sick is this patient right now, and when do they need a transplant?


MELD Score

MELD = 9.57 × ln(creatinine) + 3.78 × ln(bilirubin) + 11.20 × ln(INR) + 6.43

MELD Score3-Month MortalityClinical Status
<9<2%Low severity
10–196–20%Moderate
20–2920–45%High; transplant listing priority
30–3945–75%Very high
≥40>75%Critical

UNOS listing threshold: MELD ≥15.


MELD-Na Score

MELD-Na = MELD − Na − [0.025 × MELD × (140 − Na)] + 140

Adopted by UNOS in 2016 as the US organ allocation score.


Child-Pugh Score

Parameter1 Point2 Points3 Points
Bilirubin<22–3>3
Albumin>3.52.8–3.5<2.8
INR<1.71.7–2.3>2.3
AscitesNoneMildModerate–severe
EncephalopathyNoneGrade I–IIGrade III–IV
ScoreClass1-Year SurvivalSurgical Risk
5–6A100%Low
7–9B80%Moderate
10–15C45%Prohibitive

Evidence and Guidelines

Ruf A et al. (2021) reviewed the 20-year history of MELD score development. The shift from waiting-time-based to MELD-based allocation in 2002 significantly reduced waitlist mortality. Ann Hepatol. 2021;27(1):100535. PMID: 34560316.

Asrani SK et al. (2020) developed MELD-GRAIL-Na, which replaces serum creatinine with eGFR. It was a significantly better predictor of waitlist mortality than MELD-Na, particularly in women. Hepatology. 2020;71(5):1766–1774. PMID: 31523825.

Jalan R et al. (2014) developed CLIF-C ACLF score, which outperformed MELD, MELD-Na, and Child-Pugh for ACLF prognostication. J Hepatol. 2014;61(5):1038–1047. PMID: 24950482.


References

  1. Ruf A et al. Ann Hepatol. 2021;27(1):100535. PMID: 34560316.
  2. Asrani SK et al. Hepatology. 2020;71(5):1766–1774. PMID: 31523825.
  3. Jalan R et al. J Hepatol. 2014;61(5):1038–1047. PMID: 24950482.
  4. Malinchoc M et al. Hepatology. 2000;31(4):864–871. PMID: 10733541.

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